UK-EU summit: Room for manoeuvre is limited

During the height of the Brexit drama, as a beleaguered Theresa May fought endlessly to get her withdrawal deal through parliament, and speaker John Bercow became famous for his calls to “order” in an often unruly chamber, there was another man who rose to prominence.
With his blue and yellow top hat, representing the colours of the European Union, Steve Bray and his pleas to “stop Brexit” have become a mainstay of Westminster life.
All these years later, he is still there. Singing his pro-EU songs, dressed in his familiar colours.
From south Wales, he is a staunch remainer, believing the UK should never have left the EU.
One might think that this upcoming UK-EU Summit, which Prime Minister Keir Starmer has already made clear will not see any agreement to return to the single market or customs union, might be met with disappointment by Steve Bray.
Quite the contrary.
“I’m looking forward to it,” he said.
It is part of what he believes is an “inevitable” process of moving closer to the EU.
“It’s not all going to come at once. We’re back in the space programme already, maybe next for the future generations it could be Erasmus and maybe then the customs union, single market. We’ll be back in all but name,” he said.

Steve Bray, also known as ‘Stop Brexit Man’, believes further cooperation with the EU is on the cards

Following the success of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK at the recent local elections, many believe that the government is reluctant to be seen to get too close to the EU and that the summit could be played down somewhat.
Attending on behalf of the EU will be Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa, European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas.
There are no plans for the leaders of member states to attend.
The expectation is that while some agreements may be announced, namely a defence and security pact, both sides will also use the event as an opportunity to issue a “statement of intent” on several other matters.
Ultimately though, the fact that it is even happening is seen as significant in itself.
It is not that long since the relationship between the UK and EU was at an all-time low with Ireland often being at the centre of those disagreements.
A lost opportunity
During his time as Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar worked with three British Prime Ministers.
He is glad that the summit is happening after “ten years of drifting apart”.
However, he also describes it as a “lost opportunity”.

Leo Varadkar seen meeting then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in 2020

Speaking ahead of the summit he explained: “Because of the red lines that the British government drew for itself before the election, no single market and no customs union, and because the European Union can’t allow cherry-picking of elements of the single market, what can be achieved is limited.”
He believes that Labour, like the Conservative Party, is afraid of the political threat posed by Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
“What always seemed strange to me is that in the United Kingdom you have a clear majority in opinion polls, whatever they’re worth, saying that people want back into the customs union, want back into the single market, want back into the European Union but nobody is offering that.
“I think that is a lot to do with Nigel Farage and the Reform UK party, and the new British Labour government is in many ways adopting the same strategy as previous Conservative governments which is trying to contain Farage and Reform by adopting many of their policies,” Mr Varadkar said.
Rebuilding trust
Leo Varadkar also makes the point that with the Reform party, led by Brexiteer Nigel Farage, rising in opinion polls, the relationship between the UK and EU remains uncertain.
This week Mr Farage told the Daily Telegraph that he would scrap any deal that Mr Starmer agrees with the EU, describing it as an “abject surrender”.
Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch also warned that she would “take back every power he hands over to Brussels”.
It begs the question: can the EU trust the UK?
One party that is taking a different approach is the Liberal Democrats Party.
Its foreign affairs spokesperson, Calum Miller, said his party would seek much closer ties with the European Union.

Liberal Democrats foreign affairs spokesperson Callum Miller has called for closer ties to the EU

“There are two or three short-term measures which are available to the UK government such as a European Youth Mobility Scheme, progress on the sanitary and phytosanitary agreement, which would really show that the UK is serious about addressing some of the most damaging aspects of the Brexit deal which the Tories implemented in this country.
“Secondly, we’d like to see that pathway, a commitment towards future negotiations to deliver a real economic benefit to both the EU and the UK through a commitment to reach towards a customs union,” he explained.
One could criticise that policy however, arguing that the UK would become rule takers rather than rule makers.
Why not campaign to rejoin the European Union?
“We recognise that it would be a journey for the UK to go on to get to that point. And also we’re humble. We recognise that it was the UK that chose to leave the EU and it would be a kind of arrogance to assume that we could just turn around and say, ‘actually, you know what, we’ve changed our minds, we’d like to go back in now’.
“So what we’re saying is that we need to restore confidence with our European partners, give them reasons to want to be back in negotiations with the UK,” Mr Miller said.
What’s on the table?
Negotiations are set to continue right up until the final hours before the summit.
Many of the areas where the UK and EU believe there is scope for agreement have been well flagged.
They include the youth mobility scheme, a deal on plant and animal products to reduce trade barriers, and a linking of emission trading schemes.
In its election manifesto, the Labour Party also set out ambitions to secure mutual recognition of professional qualifications and an agreement to make it easier for UK artists to tour Europe.
Points of contentions include whether European students should have to pay full tuition fees and how long a fishing rights deal would last.
According to Anand Menon, Director of UK in a Changing Europe, an agreement on security and defence will likely be the main focus of the summit.
“The UK wants a lot of things from the European Union, the primary objective for this summit I think is to sign a security and defence pact because one of the key UK asks is access to some of the EU funding that is available for defence industrial projects”, he said.

Anand Menon believes an agreement on security and defence will be the main focus of the summit

Mr Menon also warns that people shouldn’t get their hopes up, expecting a raft of signed deals.
“My hunch is that on the whole gamut of economic interactions or people-to-people stuff we’ll get a declaration expressing an intention to negotiate these things. I’d be surprised if we come out with clear agreement on youth mobility or an agricultural deal, or anything like that,” he added.
Symbolism
One senior diplomat points out that while there may not be many agreements finalised at tomorrow’s summit, it is still a significant event.
It is an opportunity, he argues, to send out a clear message to the political system, civil servants and the public that the UK and EU are partners once again.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves told The Guardian this weekend that any deal struck at the summit will not be a “one off”.
After years of “drifting apart”, the UK is moving closer to Europe.

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Author: RTÉ News